Rather than having this Q&A session be just for Friday, let’s extend it out through the weekend. We have many community members in timezones spread out across the globe, and our discussions tend to go on for a couple of days anyway ...
Feel free to open the discussion up a little more, as many of the people commenting here have a lot of their own experience and expertise that’s worth sharing. So feel free to ask questions to both myself and anyone else who participates in these threads.
That said, last week’s session was even better than the week before it. We had 73 comments from a wide array of Silk Road researchers, travelers, and watchers, and I feel as if we learned a lot from each other and had a good time doing it.
We seemed to have a good deal of interest in Silk Road travel last week, so let's make that the theme this week.
How to travel the New Silk Road / Belt and Road?
Sample questions:
—> How do you get started traveling the Silk Road / doing on the ground Silk Road research?
—> What places do you recommend traveling to?
—> How do you balance being researcher and being a tourist?
—> Why document Silk Road development?
—> What to do when you’re actually there on the ground?
—> How to make contacts and make the most of your travels?
—> How and where to publish your findings?
Or ask any other questions that you may have.
Please also feel free to go off-script. While each open thread will have a theme this doesn’t mean you need to constrain your enquiries to fall within these parameters. If you have a question, ask it.
As always, let’s have fun with this. Be nice. Fire away.
Walk Slow,
Wade
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Ok, I'll answer these questions as if applied to me:
Q: How do you get started traveling the Silk Road / doing on the ground Silk Road research?
A: I've long been interested in the ancient Silk Road. When I began my consulting firm, Dezan Shira & Associates back in 1992 in China, I took the time to travel around the country, and especially the West. I traveled the length of the China Silk Road from Xi'an to Taxkorgan overland back in 1996.
I recall being in the Urumqi Museum with a friend of mine, an old Africa hand. I saw a pot with a distinctive design, yet the sign said it was "origin unknown" but had been dug up from an ancient Gobi Desert site. My mate said he knew exactly where it was from. "That's distinctive right? It's from a village near Mombassa where they still make pots like that today".
I have since had numerous clients investing in China's West, I've been all over Xinjiang, Ningxia and Gansu many times. In fact I've been to all of China's Provinces and most of the major cities.
This means I know the difference between a Yurt and a Ger.
When I was living in Beijing, I got fed up with China expats talking shit all the time and bitching about their jobs and getting pissed up at the same old bars all the time. So I started going to Ulaan Baatar instead, a 90 minute flight, initially once a month and then every weekend and all holidays. I can ride horses, so I rode all over Mongolia. The freedom there out of the steppes was something that wasn't in China. Eventually I bought an apartment there and still have it, 14 years later. I spend two months a year every summer up in Mongolia.
Q: What places do you recommend traveling to?
A: Travel as much as you can. It's all good.
Q: How do you balance being researcher and being a tourist?
A: Tourists visit museums, so do researchers, so it's a fine line at times. I guess the difference is acquiring a real interest. I have been to many places tourists also have, there's no shame in that, except that tourists tend to pick the more obvious spots. Time is a constraint of course. But you can always return, get off the beaten track. And build a library. I have a lot of old books in my personal library. Amazon and Ebay are great sources of material.
Q: Why document Silk Road development?
A: That varies from individual to individual. For me, it's because I would do it anyway, and because I have a business motivation. My firm is well known in China, but we have to compete with lots of other China based consulting companies, there's loads of them. But not many can afford to or even have the resources to do the Belt & Road Initiative. We do and it helps us stand out from the pack.
Q: What to do when you’re actually there on the ground?
A: I will usually have pre-arranged business meetings, so get those out of the way. Then go to the obvious places, museums and so on. Local sights. Then head for the nearest bar, with the intention of meeting people, especially other expats and locals. A few mutual beers reveals a lot more than guidebooks. Girls too. They always want to help a lonely soul from afar. I have had a string of lovers from across the Silk Road I have had mutually enjoyable affairs with who have also been immensely helpful, and who remain so.
Q: How to make contacts and make the most of your travels?
A: You have to get out and about and do it yourself. Some Embassies can be useful in introducing contacts, after all its what their Commercial Attaches' are paid for. Some are stuffed shirts, others will buy you a beer. But basically it's up to you to make the effort. And go hang out where people who you are likely to find interesting will be. Tip: There is usually an expat bar hangout near the main 5 star hotel in any remote city. Find the hotel, and walk around until you find the right bar. One beer will be enough to find out if it's one that will yield interesting conversations.
Q: How and where to publish your findings?
A: I own a publishing company, Asia Briefing, so its easy for me. www.asiabriefing.com
But otherwise contribute, and get involved with blogs like this one. But be aware it is very hard to make a living out of writing. Don't expect millions of people will read or buy your stuff. And Linked In has a 1% click through if you're lucky, which is rubbish. You might get lots of likes, but that doesn't mean anyone reads the content.
Wade has put this blog up and he can help, and so can people like me, at least on the business stuff. We do feature other people's articles on Silk Road Briefing for example. The approach needs to be a steady drip, drip drip to build up credibility and a name. It gets easier after awhile. Everyone has to start somewhere. The first step though is getting out and doing it.
"Then head for the nearest bar, with the intention of meeting people, especially other expats and locals. A few mutual beers reveals a lot more than guidebooks."
"But basically it's up to you to make the effort. And go hang out where people who you are likely to find interesting will be. Tip: There is usually an expat bar hangout near the main 5 star hotel in any remote city. Find the hotel, and walk around until you find the right bar. One beer will be enough to find out if it's one that will yield interesting conversations."
That's basically my strategy almost verbatim. Talk to people! Talk to people! Talk to people! It's crazy to me how little most journalists spend actually going around talking to the people in the places they do stories about. They set up formal meetings, ask some questions to the men in suits, and call it a day. The men in suits are an important part of the story, but they are only one part. It's pretty baffling how often major media companies get in touch with offering to pay my fees if I refer them locals to talk to. Just go there and make friends. Ask questions, take an interest in people, tell them what you're doing and don't be timid to ask for help. Tell people what you want from them. Don't be afraid of "taking advantage."
"But otherwise contribute, and get involved with blogs like this one. But be aware it is very hard to make a living out of writing. Don't expect millions of people will read or buy your stuff."
Yes, this is also very important. Make sure you have a publication plan. You can't expect anyone to take out time for you for nothing in return. Everyone has a story that they want to share, and giving them a platform to spread that story is what you give them in return for their time. Publish, publish, publish. Be fair and honest and properly contextualize your topics. Eventually, you will build a reputation and you will find that the people you want to meet also want to meet you. Then things get pretty cool.
If you ask me nicely I'll send you a free copy of that too. Email me at silkroad@dezshira.com and mark it "Wade's Blog" so I know it came from this source.
It will probably be Uzbekistan-->Kazakhstan-->Kyrgyzstan. This time I will go to more places of cultural / personal interest rather than spending most of my time in ports and at empty special economic zones and on the side of half-built highways.
Just to fill in new people here, I am still on the road, in Kenya, going nowhere.
Well, assuming that I can actually ride this bugger out, Uganda is just a days travel away. But i promised to buy the Commissioner a beer, so I will go to Nairobi first. But Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi. And that's just for starters.
There are lots of ifs and buts. Which countries will open up and which ones will still be closed. May be a case of travelling to open ones first.
Those are some interesting options. Head to Djibouti too and check out the railway to Addis Ababa. Man, you're really going to be creaming me now with the country count. I'm going to have to do a run through the Caribbean just to get ahead again ... then go back to business as usual on the Silk Road haha.
The commission has kept me informed... and kept my moral high as not all days are hunky dorey...
I wasn't planning on going back to Ethiopia. We can never be sure how this will pan out.
Im on 95 now, so Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, via, Tanz Zambia, either Namibia or Bots would be 100th. (Tanz is not a new hit) . Hope to take the old german boat down lake Tangynika. if its still running.
Plenty of options. But difficult times ahead. Lets see what my options are when Kenya opens up. Maybe Tanz opens and Uganda stays closed. Who knows.
Do you ever keep in touch/follow up with the people you interview on your travels? - Intrigued if Sergei ever made it to Chongqing to be with his love or if he is still making bubble tea and serving snacks in Nurkent.
Good question. Yeah, I just kind of go out and make friends. It's often the same for the CEOs and academics as it is for dudes with dreams to make bubble tea. When traveling, the people that I interview for stories make up a huge percentage of the people that I talk with throughout the day, so the role that it fills is a little different than if I was just sitting in a cubicle at some big news publication making phone calls to the other side of the world.
In many Asian and Post-Soviet countries relationships are highly valued and needed if you want to get permission to access the places that you want to go. Relationship trumps rules in many instances.
Another thing is that if you're writing about the Silk Road and people are working on / investing in / being impacted by the Silk Road then you automatically have an interest in common, so a groundwork is created for friendship. Plus, there often isn't much else do do out in many of these places besides hanging out and drinking beer.
What I always tell young journalists is to not go out and make contacts, make friends. Contacts can tell you a bunch of PR crap that's the same as you can find in a press release. Friends can open doors and actually teach you something. Plus, it makes things a little more fun.
ha ha same advice I give to young PRs, make friends not contacts, end up with more interesting stories, angles and features clients have never thought of but consumers actually care about, and yes more fun too.
It's funny how formal and scripted many journalists are. I get interviewed often for other people's stories so I can see this from the other side and it's often so strange to me -- they don't seem to really have much of a personal interest in their stories. Just seems like they're doing a job.
Yeah I hear you. the best journalists I know and those I enjoy reading the most are those with a natural curiosity and that are genuinely interested in people - they are generally more fun to hang with too
I didn't get much response last week but I did check with 2 missionary organizations that have contacts in central Asia and both assured me that these missionaries are very much planted around the 'stans and elsewhere. And they really don't want to be outed, either. The South China Morning Post wrote about one missionary couple in Iraqi Kurdistan, so they ARE out there. If anyone else has encountered this, please let me know as I'm quite interested in this movement.
I'd take such claims with a pinch of salt. You're asking missionary organisations if they're doing their jobs - what do you expect them to say? Then of course its all top secret because they "don't want to be outed." It's evangelical work. The work itself is to proselytize. You can't exactly keep that underground when the idea is "to spread the word".
The idea of Missionaries working "underground" as if they are some kind of Christian James Bond is dangerous and deliberately portrayed as unnecessarily romantic. It is also a quid pro pro: They are "underground" because it is dangerous, and therefore cannot be revealed. It's bullshit. They "cannot be revealed" because then they'd be outed as not actually doing anything useful and if that came out they would consequently loose their funding.
At work, it can also be downright stupid: Amazon tribes being infected with Covid-19 right now, and Andaman Islanders killing an American in his canoe last year. His dead body lay rotting on the beach and he had disobeyed restrictions on visiting. It is not OK.
Missionaries working in Islam countries would be far better off spending their time looking at the similarities between Islam and Christianity and developing mutual respect instead of preaching differences between the Koran and the Bible. After all, its the same God both refer too. My God is not an exclusive one, and I don't trust anyone who suggests theirs alone is.
Chris - please do a serious study of Islam and Christianity before you make ridiculous claims like those two religions sharing the same God. Allah and the Judeo-Christian God are separate entities and totally different theological constructs.
Also, missionaries are not infecting people in the Amazon - not sure where you get that claim.
The rest of your note is so incoherent, I'm not going to bother replying to it.
“Please do a serious study of Christianity & Islam”. - er, done that. I had a Church education, my Headmaster was a Bishop. I have read the Koran and many other religious scripts, multiple times and have travelled extensively in both Christian and Muslim lands. Exclusivity meanwhile, is the work of the Devil. Your statement about Christian and Muslim Gods being different is the exact opposite view to that of the Pope. Be careful what you selectively wish for and which God you choose. God bless.
PS: As for being incoherent, I believe you used the wrong term. I suspect you really meant to say that you choose to ignore what I pointed out, being the harm some missionaries inflict, both upon themselves and others. Instead you ignore that yet suggest I am "incoherent." For someone who has been proposed for a Pulitzer, that's a surprising mis-use of the term.
As for backing up my claims, here's media exposes of two very recent cases of Missionary work going horribly wrong:
1) Missionaries in the Amazon infecting a remote tribe with Covid-19.
I have no problem with Missionary work as long as it doesn't endanger anyone. The problem is, many do. Evangelists of all religions tend to have an attitude that only they are right. You reject my proposal it would be better to spend time healing religious divides than preaching religious differences. I have a different opinion. My God loves all. Does yours? Or are only Christians allowed? And are Adam and Eve in Heaven, Hell, Purgatory or just made up?
I would really appreciate your opinion on Kazakhstan from an investment perspective, for instance in banking (e.g. Halyk Bank). Do you see any more interesting themes/countries out there?
Due to the situation with the price of oil and the continued devaluation of the tenge, it may be a good time to invest in Kazakhstan ... if you believe that things are going to go back to something approaching normal at some point soon. Other than that, there should be opportunities in supporting industries for their transport infrastructure projects -- new highway rest stops, hotels, etc. Although it's not exactly a very highly populated country and they seem to be spiraling towards a recession that may go deeper than that of many other countries.
I've been looking for years at the NY stock exchange for ways to invest in Kazakhstan but there's nothing except for one of the banks. Am not sure what to do next. All the emerging market funds are based in mainly in China with little bits in India and elsewhere but nothing in countries like Kaz or Georgia.
As for emerging markets, there are plenty of funds available. You just need to do a bit more homework or hire a consultant to go and find them from you. And a word of advise: If you don't know what you're doing and have no local experience of these countries, don't invest in them. Period. Emerging markets are not the place for the naive or stupid, and I'm sure you're neither of those.
Chris, it feels like you do a lot of criticizing people's comments on this site so I knew it was only a matter of time before you trashed one of mine. I don't need to do homework. I've been investing in emerging markets for 20+ years. The 2nd article you sent me said that one would have to travel to Kazakhstan to invest in the stock exchange. That's a 6,000-mile flight. Don't send me crazy suggestions like that. It's not unreasonable for me to look at the NYSE - there's 150+ Chinese firms on our stock exchange and no reason why Kazakhstan can't join that party.
Trashed? I spent 30 minutes replying to you providing links and giving you some advise. Of course if you think you know better then go ahead. I know full well there are Chinese businesses listed on the NYSE. I was involved with some of those. There are also very good reasons why Chinese businesses have listed but Kazak ones have not. And you asked about Kazak, not Chinese companies. Theres no need to be so uptight when you asked a question and I gave you an honest answer. Or perhaps you prefer answers that agree with what you know rather than what you don’t know? Either way I won’t bother with your questions in the future if you’re going to be like that. Have a lovely Sunday!
Actually there's multiple reasons why Kazakhstan businesses AREN'T on the NYSE. Maybe you should research and understand the issue if you plan to invest or start to criticize professionals who do know what they're talking about. In the meantime, instead of being grouchy, unappreciative and thinking that people are criticizing you, we'll see if you are considerate enough to say thank you for this instead of complaining or suggesting things are "crazy suggestions" when they are in fact the local regulations. It's hardly my fault if you don't like dealing with other countries laws, is it? Anyway, here goes: https://www.silkroadbriefing.com/news/2020/04/27/investing-emerging-belt-road-initiative-stock-markets-central-asia/
Doing actual business in Georgia has two drawbacks: (1) They have a tendency to piss off the Russians, and when that happens the economy takes a hit. (2) The business environment for is erratic. What appears to be one thing turns out to be another.
The Georgians (and all the Caucasus) appear very European but in fact it's all very different. Great places, but very hard work, very conservative and very protectionist. My recommendation: You need a good and solid, well trusted local partner to get things done there. Armenia is a bit looser and open, mainly because the Armenian diaspora has rather more experience. I bought property as an investment in Yerevan.
Azerbaijan runs on a more hand-shake basis as is common in Muslim countries, with deals done in Mosques in a similar manner to Turkey. It's a brotherhood and you need to be in that to get things done. Foreigners are fair game as infidels.
I don't have so much experience in Kazakhstan other than big-ticket items at the corporate end.
I must stress that all of these markets are hard work. Mistakes will be punished and you need patience, considerable experience and deep pockets to get things moving in any of these countries. I put a failure rate of foreigners trying to go it alone in these regions at well over 90%. You need a good local partner. So...also being in possession of some of the worlds most physically attractive people, find yourself a nice girl or boy over there, and short cut the proceedings to become local.
"You need a good and solid, well trusted local partner to get things done there."
Agree completely. All of these markets are erratic and don't necessarily follow their own rules. You can hear lots of complaints about how locals are ripped off by governments and the ruling business elites. How much easier it is for them to cheat foreigners who don't have local ties with a (reasonably) powerful player.
I believe Armenia is a little different. I've always been impressed by that country, and have known many quasi-foreigners (Armenian diaspora) who have moved back and successfully started up businesses. There seems to be a lot of room for growth there and the population still seems mobilized and hopeful after their recent revolution. It's really a place to be for many reasons -- one of which Chris pointed out.
Re Halyk Bank, I share your concerns re the merger with Kazkommertsbank, which reportedly had a large NPL portfolio. Valuation-wise, the shares seem quite cheap at 3.3x P/E
Well you can do your own research. Halyk bank is a reasonable choice, its Kazakhstan's largest bank and is government supported with operations in Russia and some of the CIS/EAEU countries. To examine the way ahead though you need to be abreast of developments in these emerging markets - and especially trade. Kazakhstan is part of the EAEU, yet Halyk doesn't have operations in fellow EAEU member states Armenia or Belarus. If it did that would be a boost. So look out for news on moves like that. It's not operational in China either, which is a big omission. It also only recently completed its merger with Kazkommerstzbank - how is that going? (mergers are notoriously difficult to get right). The stock price seems to be doing ok. But to invest, you need it to be doing a lot better in future. That depends on two things: the expansion of the Kazakh economy and Halyk's ability to keep ahead of that and grow market share, (ie: growing at 5% when the economy is doing the same is easy. You need growth better than that as that equates to market share expansion) - and growth in associated markets - and that means looking out for additional operating branches in the EAEU, CIS and China. As a shareholder, I'd want to know what those plans are. If you refer to the Kazakh stock exchange website here: https://kase.kz/en/ you'll see that Halyk announced a annual shareholders meeting will take place on 22nd May. I'd want to see the results of that, which ought to be published soon afterwards. Of course if you were a shareholder, you could attend and ask such questions yourself....
The key to investing isn't to look at fundamentals and previous performance, the key to investing is working out as best you can what is likely to happen in the future. Examining shareholder meeting discussions and looking at obvious market progression, both domestic and regional and the probability of this happening, is a research issue. Which is why blogs such as Wade's, and hopefully my own Silk Road Briefing www.silkroadbriefing.com are useful tools.
"The key to investing isn't to look at fundamentals and previous performance, the key to investing is working out as best you can what is likely to happen in the future. Examining shareholder meeting discussions and looking at obvious market progression, both domestic and regional and the probability of this happening, is a research issue. Which is why blogs such as Wade's, and hopefully my own Silk Road Briefing www.silkroadbriefing.com are useful tools."
Exactly. So much is happening in these regions that are simply not being covered in both the local and international media.
I can't wait to get back out there as soon as borders open again.
Ok, I'll answer these questions as if applied to me:
Q: How do you get started traveling the Silk Road / doing on the ground Silk Road research?
A: I've long been interested in the ancient Silk Road. When I began my consulting firm, Dezan Shira & Associates back in 1992 in China, I took the time to travel around the country, and especially the West. I traveled the length of the China Silk Road from Xi'an to Taxkorgan overland back in 1996.
I recall being in the Urumqi Museum with a friend of mine, an old Africa hand. I saw a pot with a distinctive design, yet the sign said it was "origin unknown" but had been dug up from an ancient Gobi Desert site. My mate said he knew exactly where it was from. "That's distinctive right? It's from a village near Mombassa where they still make pots like that today".
I have since had numerous clients investing in China's West, I've been all over Xinjiang, Ningxia and Gansu many times. In fact I've been to all of China's Provinces and most of the major cities.
I wrote a book about the region in 2008: https://www.asiabriefing.com/store/book/business-guide-to-west-china-451 (ask me nicely and I'll send you a free copy)
This means I know the difference between a Yurt and a Ger.
When I was living in Beijing, I got fed up with China expats talking shit all the time and bitching about their jobs and getting pissed up at the same old bars all the time. So I started going to Ulaan Baatar instead, a 90 minute flight, initially once a month and then every weekend and all holidays. I can ride horses, so I rode all over Mongolia. The freedom there out of the steppes was something that wasn't in China. Eventually I bought an apartment there and still have it, 14 years later. I spend two months a year every summer up in Mongolia.
Q: What places do you recommend traveling to?
A: Travel as much as you can. It's all good.
Q: How do you balance being researcher and being a tourist?
A: Tourists visit museums, so do researchers, so it's a fine line at times. I guess the difference is acquiring a real interest. I have been to many places tourists also have, there's no shame in that, except that tourists tend to pick the more obvious spots. Time is a constraint of course. But you can always return, get off the beaten track. And build a library. I have a lot of old books in my personal library. Amazon and Ebay are great sources of material.
Q: Why document Silk Road development?
A: That varies from individual to individual. For me, it's because I would do it anyway, and because I have a business motivation. My firm is well known in China, but we have to compete with lots of other China based consulting companies, there's loads of them. But not many can afford to or even have the resources to do the Belt & Road Initiative. We do and it helps us stand out from the pack.
Q: What to do when you’re actually there on the ground?
A: I will usually have pre-arranged business meetings, so get those out of the way. Then go to the obvious places, museums and so on. Local sights. Then head for the nearest bar, with the intention of meeting people, especially other expats and locals. A few mutual beers reveals a lot more than guidebooks. Girls too. They always want to help a lonely soul from afar. I have had a string of lovers from across the Silk Road I have had mutually enjoyable affairs with who have also been immensely helpful, and who remain so.
Q: How to make contacts and make the most of your travels?
A: You have to get out and about and do it yourself. Some Embassies can be useful in introducing contacts, after all its what their Commercial Attaches' are paid for. Some are stuffed shirts, others will buy you a beer. But basically it's up to you to make the effort. And go hang out where people who you are likely to find interesting will be. Tip: There is usually an expat bar hangout near the main 5 star hotel in any remote city. Find the hotel, and walk around until you find the right bar. One beer will be enough to find out if it's one that will yield interesting conversations.
Q: How and where to publish your findings?
A: I own a publishing company, Asia Briefing, so its easy for me. www.asiabriefing.com
But otherwise contribute, and get involved with blogs like this one. But be aware it is very hard to make a living out of writing. Don't expect millions of people will read or buy your stuff. And Linked In has a 1% click through if you're lucky, which is rubbish. You might get lots of likes, but that doesn't mean anyone reads the content.
Wade has put this blog up and he can help, and so can people like me, at least on the business stuff. We do feature other people's articles on Silk Road Briefing for example. The approach needs to be a steady drip, drip drip to build up credibility and a name. It gets easier after awhile. Everyone has to start somewhere. The first step though is getting out and doing it.
"Then head for the nearest bar, with the intention of meeting people, especially other expats and locals. A few mutual beers reveals a lot more than guidebooks."
"But basically it's up to you to make the effort. And go hang out where people who you are likely to find interesting will be. Tip: There is usually an expat bar hangout near the main 5 star hotel in any remote city. Find the hotel, and walk around until you find the right bar. One beer will be enough to find out if it's one that will yield interesting conversations."
That's basically my strategy almost verbatim. Talk to people! Talk to people! Talk to people! It's crazy to me how little most journalists spend actually going around talking to the people in the places they do stories about. They set up formal meetings, ask some questions to the men in suits, and call it a day. The men in suits are an important part of the story, but they are only one part. It's pretty baffling how often major media companies get in touch with offering to pay my fees if I refer them locals to talk to. Just go there and make friends. Ask questions, take an interest in people, tell them what you're doing and don't be timid to ask for help. Tell people what you want from them. Don't be afraid of "taking advantage."
I outline my methodology on my personal blog here: https://www.vagabondjourney.com/traveling-chroniclers-toolkit-the-bar/.
"But otherwise contribute, and get involved with blogs like this one. But be aware it is very hard to make a living out of writing. Don't expect millions of people will read or buy your stuff."
Yes, this is also very important. Make sure you have a publication plan. You can't expect anyone to take out time for you for nothing in return. Everyone has a story that they want to share, and giving them a platform to spread that story is what you give them in return for their time. Publish, publish, publish. Be fair and honest and properly contextualize your topics. Eventually, you will build a reputation and you will find that the people you want to meet also want to meet you. Then things get pretty cool.
‘Then head to the nearest bar’ is pretty much my travel strategy wherever I land and whatever the mission ;-)
Fubar Missionaries! Yay! 🍷🍸🤤
PS: You can also see my travel guide to Mongolia here, its a bit out of date (2007) but is now a free download: http://ubmongoliatravelguide.com/
My best selling book about the New Silk Road Book is here: https://www.asiabriefing.com/store/book/chinas-new-economic-silk-road-the-great-eurasian-game-the-string-of-pearls-pdf-download-version-593.
If you ask me nicely I'll send you a free copy of that too. Email me at silkroad@dezshira.com and mark it "Wade's Blog" so I know it came from this source.
You're gonna love this Q. When is the Silk Road book coming out.....?
Haha. Sometime soon. We have a new publisher now, so that's a good thing. Maybe sometime in the autumn???
Corona will hopefully be done by then. Haha. Greetings from Kenya. I did one of my re posts from Georgia. Sarah loved it.
So when we are free to 'move', whats the first stop on the Silk Road for you?
It will probably be Uzbekistan-->Kazakhstan-->Kyrgyzstan. This time I will go to more places of cultural / personal interest rather than spending most of my time in ports and at empty special economic zones and on the side of half-built highways.
What about you? When are you going back?
Just to fill in new people here, I am still on the road, in Kenya, going nowhere.
Well, assuming that I can actually ride this bugger out, Uganda is just a days travel away. But i promised to buy the Commissioner a beer, so I will go to Nairobi first. But Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi. And that's just for starters.
There are lots of ifs and buts. Which countries will open up and which ones will still be closed. May be a case of travelling to open ones first.
To many unknowns for the time being.
"buy the Commissioner a beer"
What's the story behind that?
Those are some interesting options. Head to Djibouti too and check out the railway to Addis Ababa. Man, you're really going to be creaming me now with the country count. I'm going to have to do a run through the Caribbean just to get ahead again ... then go back to business as usual on the Silk Road haha.
What's going to be country #100?
The commission has kept me informed... and kept my moral high as not all days are hunky dorey...
I wasn't planning on going back to Ethiopia. We can never be sure how this will pan out.
Im on 95 now, so Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, via, Tanz Zambia, either Namibia or Bots would be 100th. (Tanz is not a new hit) . Hope to take the old german boat down lake Tangynika. if its still running.
Plenty of options. But difficult times ahead. Lets see what my options are when Kenya opens up. Maybe Tanz opens and Uganda stays closed. Who knows.
Do you ever keep in touch/follow up with the people you interview on your travels? - Intrigued if Sergei ever made it to Chongqing to be with his love or if he is still making bubble tea and serving snacks in Nurkent.
Good question. Yeah, I just kind of go out and make friends. It's often the same for the CEOs and academics as it is for dudes with dreams to make bubble tea. When traveling, the people that I interview for stories make up a huge percentage of the people that I talk with throughout the day, so the role that it fills is a little different than if I was just sitting in a cubicle at some big news publication making phone calls to the other side of the world.
In many Asian and Post-Soviet countries relationships are highly valued and needed if you want to get permission to access the places that you want to go. Relationship trumps rules in many instances.
Another thing is that if you're writing about the Silk Road and people are working on / investing in / being impacted by the Silk Road then you automatically have an interest in common, so a groundwork is created for friendship. Plus, there often isn't much else do do out in many of these places besides hanging out and drinking beer.
What I always tell young journalists is to not go out and make contacts, make friends. Contacts can tell you a bunch of PR crap that's the same as you can find in a press release. Friends can open doors and actually teach you something. Plus, it makes things a little more fun.
ha ha same advice I give to young PRs, make friends not contacts, end up with more interesting stories, angles and features clients have never thought of but consumers actually care about, and yes more fun too.
It's funny how formal and scripted many journalists are. I get interviewed often for other people's stories so I can see this from the other side and it's often so strange to me -- they don't seem to really have much of a personal interest in their stories. Just seems like they're doing a job.
Yeah I hear you. the best journalists I know and those I enjoy reading the most are those with a natural curiosity and that are genuinely interested in people - they are generally more fun to hang with too
I missed this Q&A session. Will you continue on this week?
Hello Georgiy, No problem at all! There will be a new one up tomorrow.
Hi from Seattle again. Last week, I asked if anyone had run into Chinese Christians who are doing undercover evangelizing in Muslim countries along the traditional Silk Road in what is know n as the "back to Jerusalem" movement. One set of these missionaries were killed in Pakistan almost 3 years ago, but many journalists covering the incident failed to connect the dots, I wrote about here: https://www.getreligion.org/getreligion/2017/6/13/reporters-miss-how-chinese-couple-killed-in-pakistan-were-part-of-huge-missionary-enterprise.
I didn't get much response last week but I did check with 2 missionary organizations that have contacts in central Asia and both assured me that these missionaries are very much planted around the 'stans and elsewhere. And they really don't want to be outed, either. The South China Morning Post wrote about one missionary couple in Iraqi Kurdistan, so they ARE out there. If anyone else has encountered this, please let me know as I'm quite interested in this movement.
I'd take such claims with a pinch of salt. You're asking missionary organisations if they're doing their jobs - what do you expect them to say? Then of course its all top secret because they "don't want to be outed." It's evangelical work. The work itself is to proselytize. You can't exactly keep that underground when the idea is "to spread the word".
The idea of Missionaries working "underground" as if they are some kind of Christian James Bond is dangerous and deliberately portrayed as unnecessarily romantic. It is also a quid pro pro: They are "underground" because it is dangerous, and therefore cannot be revealed. It's bullshit. They "cannot be revealed" because then they'd be outed as not actually doing anything useful and if that came out they would consequently loose their funding.
At work, it can also be downright stupid: Amazon tribes being infected with Covid-19 right now, and Andaman Islanders killing an American in his canoe last year. His dead body lay rotting on the beach and he had disobeyed restrictions on visiting. It is not OK.
Missionaries working in Islam countries would be far better off spending their time looking at the similarities between Islam and Christianity and developing mutual respect instead of preaching differences between the Koran and the Bible. After all, its the same God both refer too. My God is not an exclusive one, and I don't trust anyone who suggests theirs alone is.
Chris - please do a serious study of Islam and Christianity before you make ridiculous claims like those two religions sharing the same God. Allah and the Judeo-Christian God are separate entities and totally different theological constructs.
Also, missionaries are not infecting people in the Amazon - not sure where you get that claim.
The rest of your note is so incoherent, I'm not going to bother replying to it.
“Please do a serious study of Christianity & Islam”. - er, done that. I had a Church education, my Headmaster was a Bishop. I have read the Koran and many other religious scripts, multiple times and have travelled extensively in both Christian and Muslim lands. Exclusivity meanwhile, is the work of the Devil. Your statement about Christian and Muslim Gods being different is the exact opposite view to that of the Pope. Be careful what you selectively wish for and which God you choose. God bless.
PS: As for being incoherent, I believe you used the wrong term. I suspect you really meant to say that you choose to ignore what I pointed out, being the harm some missionaries inflict, both upon themselves and others. Instead you ignore that yet suggest I am "incoherent." For someone who has been proposed for a Pulitzer, that's a surprising mis-use of the term.
As for backing up my claims, here's media exposes of two very recent cases of Missionary work going horribly wrong:
1) Missionaries in the Amazon infecting a remote tribe with Covid-19.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/17/brazil-judge-bans-missionaries-coronavirus-amazon-indigenous-reserve
2) Missionary approaching Andaman Islanders despite being warned not too, then being killed. His body lay rotting on the beach for days.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/feb/03/john-chau-christian-missionary-death-sentinelese
I have no problem with Missionary work as long as it doesn't endanger anyone. The problem is, many do. Evangelists of all religions tend to have an attitude that only they are right. You reject my proposal it would be better to spend time healing religious divides than preaching religious differences. I have a different opinion. My God loves all. Does yours? Or are only Christians allowed? And are Adam and Eve in Heaven, Hell, Purgatory or just made up?
Great to be have another Q&A, thank you!
I would really appreciate your opinion on Kazakhstan from an investment perspective, for instance in banking (e.g. Halyk Bank). Do you see any more interesting themes/countries out there?
Due to the situation with the price of oil and the continued devaluation of the tenge, it may be a good time to invest in Kazakhstan ... if you believe that things are going to go back to something approaching normal at some point soon. Other than that, there should be opportunities in supporting industries for their transport infrastructure projects -- new highway rest stops, hotels, etc. Although it's not exactly a very highly populated country and they seem to be spiraling towards a recession that may go deeper than that of many other countries.
I would look at Georgia as a place for investment. They are starting from a pretty low place and have many free-trade / preferential trade agreements set up. Armenia seems to be making progress with their tech startup scene (https://www.forbes.com/sites/wadeshepard/2020/01/31/welcome-to-the-worlds-next-tech-hub-armenia/).
I'm not an investor though, so I wouldn't take my recommendations too much to heart.
Chris could probably give a more thorough response.
I've been looking for years at the NY stock exchange for ways to invest in Kazakhstan but there's nothing except for one of the banks. Am not sure what to do next. All the emerging market funds are based in mainly in China with little bits in India and elsewhere but nothing in countries like Kaz or Georgia.
Sorry - but why do you think the New York Stock Exchange would carry listed companies from Kazakhstan? Frankly, that's ridiculous.
If you want to look at Kazakhstan companies look at the Kazak exchange, which is called KASE. see their website here: https://kase.kz/en/
And also look at this article here which explains how as a foreigner you can invest in the local market: https://www.investasian.com/2017/10/08/investing-in-kazakhstan/
As for emerging markets, there are plenty of funds available. You just need to do a bit more homework or hire a consultant to go and find them from you. And a word of advise: If you don't know what you're doing and have no local experience of these countries, don't invest in them. Period. Emerging markets are not the place for the naive or stupid, and I'm sure you're neither of those.
Chris, it feels like you do a lot of criticizing people's comments on this site so I knew it was only a matter of time before you trashed one of mine. I don't need to do homework. I've been investing in emerging markets for 20+ years. The 2nd article you sent me said that one would have to travel to Kazakhstan to invest in the stock exchange. That's a 6,000-mile flight. Don't send me crazy suggestions like that. It's not unreasonable for me to look at the NYSE - there's 150+ Chinese firms on our stock exchange and no reason why Kazakhstan can't join that party.
Trashed? I spent 30 minutes replying to you providing links and giving you some advise. Of course if you think you know better then go ahead. I know full well there are Chinese businesses listed on the NYSE. I was involved with some of those. There are also very good reasons why Chinese businesses have listed but Kazak ones have not. And you asked about Kazak, not Chinese companies. Theres no need to be so uptight when you asked a question and I gave you an honest answer. Or perhaps you prefer answers that agree with what you know rather than what you don’t know? Either way I won’t bother with your questions in the future if you’re going to be like that. Have a lovely Sunday!
Actually there's multiple reasons why Kazakhstan businesses AREN'T on the NYSE. Maybe you should research and understand the issue if you plan to invest or start to criticize professionals who do know what they're talking about. In the meantime, instead of being grouchy, unappreciative and thinking that people are criticizing you, we'll see if you are considerate enough to say thank you for this instead of complaining or suggesting things are "crazy suggestions" when they are in fact the local regulations. It's hardly my fault if you don't like dealing with other countries laws, is it? Anyway, here goes: https://www.silkroadbriefing.com/news/2020/04/27/investing-emerging-belt-road-initiative-stock-markets-central-asia/
Doing actual business in Georgia has two drawbacks: (1) They have a tendency to piss off the Russians, and when that happens the economy takes a hit. (2) The business environment for is erratic. What appears to be one thing turns out to be another.
The Georgians (and all the Caucasus) appear very European but in fact it's all very different. Great places, but very hard work, very conservative and very protectionist. My recommendation: You need a good and solid, well trusted local partner to get things done there. Armenia is a bit looser and open, mainly because the Armenian diaspora has rather more experience. I bought property as an investment in Yerevan.
Azerbaijan runs on a more hand-shake basis as is common in Muslim countries, with deals done in Mosques in a similar manner to Turkey. It's a brotherhood and you need to be in that to get things done. Foreigners are fair game as infidels.
I don't have so much experience in Kazakhstan other than big-ticket items at the corporate end.
I must stress that all of these markets are hard work. Mistakes will be punished and you need patience, considerable experience and deep pockets to get things moving in any of these countries. I put a failure rate of foreigners trying to go it alone in these regions at well over 90%. You need a good local partner. So...also being in possession of some of the worlds most physically attractive people, find yourself a nice girl or boy over there, and short cut the proceedings to become local.
"You need a good and solid, well trusted local partner to get things done there."
Agree completely. All of these markets are erratic and don't necessarily follow their own rules. You can hear lots of complaints about how locals are ripped off by governments and the ruling business elites. How much easier it is for them to cheat foreigners who don't have local ties with a (reasonably) powerful player.
I believe Armenia is a little different. I've always been impressed by that country, and have known many quasi-foreigners (Armenian diaspora) who have moved back and successfully started up businesses. There seems to be a lot of room for growth there and the population still seems mobilized and hopeful after their recent revolution. It's really a place to be for many reasons -- one of which Chris pointed out.
Thank you for your kind advice, much appreciated
Re Halyk Bank, I share your concerns re the merger with Kazkommertsbank, which reportedly had a large NPL portfolio. Valuation-wise, the shares seem quite cheap at 3.3x P/E
You’re welcome! And thanks for being pleasant. 😎
More on BRI Project Financing and the impact of Covid-19 on that here: https://www.silkroadbriefing.com/news/2020/04/24/impact-covid-19-chinas-global-belt-road-project-financing-qa/
Well you can do your own research. Halyk bank is a reasonable choice, its Kazakhstan's largest bank and is government supported with operations in Russia and some of the CIS/EAEU countries. To examine the way ahead though you need to be abreast of developments in these emerging markets - and especially trade. Kazakhstan is part of the EAEU, yet Halyk doesn't have operations in fellow EAEU member states Armenia or Belarus. If it did that would be a boost. So look out for news on moves like that. It's not operational in China either, which is a big omission. It also only recently completed its merger with Kazkommerstzbank - how is that going? (mergers are notoriously difficult to get right). The stock price seems to be doing ok. But to invest, you need it to be doing a lot better in future. That depends on two things: the expansion of the Kazakh economy and Halyk's ability to keep ahead of that and grow market share, (ie: growing at 5% when the economy is doing the same is easy. You need growth better than that as that equates to market share expansion) - and growth in associated markets - and that means looking out for additional operating branches in the EAEU, CIS and China. As a shareholder, I'd want to know what those plans are. If you refer to the Kazakh stock exchange website here: https://kase.kz/en/ you'll see that Halyk announced a annual shareholders meeting will take place on 22nd May. I'd want to see the results of that, which ought to be published soon afterwards. Of course if you were a shareholder, you could attend and ask such questions yourself....
The key to investing isn't to look at fundamentals and previous performance, the key to investing is working out as best you can what is likely to happen in the future. Examining shareholder meeting discussions and looking at obvious market progression, both domestic and regional and the probability of this happening, is a research issue. Which is why blogs such as Wade's, and hopefully my own Silk Road Briefing www.silkroadbriefing.com are useful tools.
"The key to investing isn't to look at fundamentals and previous performance, the key to investing is working out as best you can what is likely to happen in the future. Examining shareholder meeting discussions and looking at obvious market progression, both domestic and regional and the probability of this happening, is a research issue. Which is why blogs such as Wade's, and hopefully my own Silk Road Briefing www.silkroadbriefing.com are useful tools."
Exactly. So much is happening in these regions that are simply not being covered in both the local and international media.
I can't wait to get back out there as soon as borders open again.